FO Research / Learn
The mechanics,
explained plainly.
The research is Premium. The machinery behind it stays open. These explainers cover what the desk’s notes rely on: term premium, the yield curve, the auction tail, the carry trade, the crack spread, real yields and the dollar. Written for readers who want to follow the reasoning, not just the conclusion. Free, permanently. The section is built as a ladder: start at the foundations, finish reading the desk’s own tools.
The Ladder · The Road Ahead
Every piece the desk will explain,
and where it sits.
This is the published map of the Learn section: what is live, what is in production and what is planned. Pieces ship when the tape arms them, so the map carries no dates; it carries the promise that the machinery the research relies on will all, eventually, be explained here. Free, in full.
- Reading the Yield Curve
- The Dollar, Decoded
- Dr Copper and Real Assets
- What Actually Moves MarketsPlanned
- Basis Points and Bond ArithmeticPlanned
- Inflation 101: CPI, PCE and “Core”Planned
- Central Banks 101Planned
- Risk-On, Risk-OffPlanned
- Steepeners and Flatteners
- Payrolls Revisions and the Benchmark
- Gold vs Real Yields
- The Carry Trade
- Credit Spreads and HY OAS
- How Treasury Auctions WorkIn production
- Real Yields and BreakevensIn production
- The COT ReportIn production
- CPI vs PCE, and the WedgeIn production
- The Macro CalendarPlanned
- The Crack Spread and the Next CPI Print
- Treasury Buybacks and the Issuer’s Hand
- FX Intervention and the Line at 160
- Term Premium, Explained
- R-Star and the Neutral Rate
- Quant vs Discretionary Macro
- QT and Who Absorbs the DurationPlanned
- Reaction Functions: Modelling a CommitteePlanned
How the research holds itself accountable: the scoring, the pre-registration, the right to be wrong in public. The lowest search volume on this page and the highest signal.
- How We Score Our Calls
- The Scored Record itself →
- Pre-Registration: Publishing the Test FirstPlanned
- Scenario Maps and InvalidationPlanned
Four Threads Run Through Everything
Market Mechanics
How the machine works: curve shapes, auctions, term premium, carry, positioning, intervention, the issuer’s own bid.
Indicators Decoded
Data literacy: what each print actually measures, what it misses and what the desk reads first when it lands.
Policy and Central Banks
Reaction functions, the dot plot, r-star, QT and what a committee can and cannot reach on the curve.
The Desk’s Method
Scoring, pre-registration and invalidation: the discipline that separates a call record from a highlight reel.
Live Now · Newest First
Quant vs Discretionary Macro: Why the Desk Runs Both
Systematic macro trades rules; discretionary macro trades judgement. Each fails in its own characteristic way, and those failure modes often differ. The desk explains why it runs both.
Term Premium, Explained: Why Long Yields Rise as the Fed Cuts
A long yield is the expected path of short rates plus the term premium. Only the first obeys the Fed. The desk explains the second layer, and why it set a floor under long rates.
Gold vs Real Yields: Why They Move Together (and When They Don't)
Gold and real yields normally move inversely: when real yields fall, gold rises. The desk explains the mechanism, why the link broke in 2024-25, and what it signals.