FO Research
FO Research Library: Macro Explainers
Evergreen explainers on the mechanics behind the desk's macro reads.
The FO Research library. Evergreen explainers on the mechanics behind the desk's macro reads, written for allocators, family offices and serious private investors. Start with an explainer to learn the machinery, then follow it into the dated notes where the desk puts that machinery to work and scores the result against the tape.
Start here
Gold vs Real Yields: Why They Move Together (and When They Don't)
Why gold trades against the real yield, why that link loosened in 2024 to 2025 as central banks became the marginal buyer, and how the desk reads gold's two engines.
The curriculum
Explainers publish on a rolling cadence. Each one anchors a cluster of the desk's timely notes.
Rates and the Fed
- Term Premium, Explained: why long yields rise as the Fed cuts (live)
- The Neutral Rate (r-star): how to tell whether policy is actually tight (live)
- Reading the Yield Curve: inversion, un-inversion and the recession-timing trap (live)
The dollar and FX
- The Dollar, Decoded: the DXY, rate differentials and the dollar smile (live)
- The Carry Trade: mechanics, funding currencies and the yen-unwind risk (live)
Gold and commodities
- Gold vs Real Yields (live)
- Dr. Copper and Real Assets: commodities as a growth signal and an inflation hedge (live)
The discipline
Two more places to look
The Glossary decodes the desk's house vocabulary and the market terms behind it, from the floor and the bid to term premium and the carry trade.
The Track Record is where the desk grades its published reads against what markets actually did, misses included. The explainers teach the method; the record shows the result.
The library expands as the desk publishes. We read the data. We call the paths.