FO Research / rates
The long-bond
verdict.
Structural reads on Treasury supply, term premium, foreign-buyer dynamics and the disconnect between Fed policy and the long end of the curve.
3 reports filed under rates
The Long Bond Disconnect
The bond vigilantes are not pricing Fed policy — they are pricing fiscal arithmetic. The Fed controls the price of money overnight. It does not control what a Gulf sovereign reserve fund or a Canadian pension pool demands to lend the U.S. government money for thirty years. Right now, they are demanding more.
Why the U.S. Dollar Could Stay Stronger for Longer
The dollar does not require explosive bullish catalysts — it only requires the rest of the world to remain relatively weaker. That is often enough. The asymmetry favours the dollar.
Dollar Strength, Oil Inflation & Higher-for-Longer Rates
If oil stays elevated, inflation risk stays alive. If inflation risk stays alive, the Fed cannot rush into cuts. If the Fed cannot cut, the U.S. dollar remains supported.