FO Research / USD
Dollar dynamics,
in full.
Dollar regime, rate differentials, fiscal positioning, inflation transmission.
4 reports filed under USD
The Dollar, Decoded: the DXY, Rate Differentials and the Dollar Smile
FO Analysis: Six Pillars. One Regime.
The shorthand: April core PCE 3.3% on the year, the 30-year sitting on 5%, the front end pricing relief the long end will not ratify, Brent back through 93, USD/JPY 159, semis a record share of the S&P, and credit spreads 272bp tight. Six pillars active, one regime.
Why the U.S. Dollar Could Stay Stronger for Longer
The dollar does not require explosive bullish catalysts — it only requires the rest of the world to remain relatively weaker. That is often enough. The asymmetry favours the dollar.
FO Market Breakdown — Dollar Strength, Oil Inflation & Higher-for-Longer Rates
If oil stays elevated, inflation risk stays alive. If inflation risk stays alive, the Fed cannot rush into cuts. If the Fed cannot cut, the U.S. dollar remains supported.