Reference point: levels as of 19 June 2026. Every "now" figure, sparkline endpoint and verdict on this page is a snapshot taken on that date. Entry is each call's publish date. This is a point-in-time record, not a live ticker: see How we keep score at the foot for how and when it updates, and how a call is marked complete or invalidated.

The spine · our highest-conviction macro calls

Long dollar. No cuts. The floor holds.

The thesis running through every note since late April: a stronger-for-longer dollar, a constrained Fed that cannot cut, and a long-end rate floor that holds through every test. It paid, and it is still paying.

The full record · every stated cross-asset bias

The complete scorecard, scored honestly

The spine above is the highest-conviction book. Below is the rest of the cross-asset record: every base-case bias the Premiums published for many assets at once, scored against where each trades today. Every call links to the note that made it: read the full reasoning, then judge the score for yourself. Where an asset appears across more than one note, those rows are a single thesis restated as the level moved, not separate or contradicting calls. Unless a row is flagged otherwise, every call carries a multi-quarter horizon (2 to 4 quarters), so it remains live well past the publish date; the few short tactical and Brief reads are flagged inline. Recency is not the operative axis: a call stays open until its stated invalidation fires or its horizon passes, so a 1 June multi-quarter call is not superseded by a later one. The rates, dollar and credit calls are where the desk is strongest. We mark the rest plainly: the Brent ranges held until the US-Iran ceasefire flipped them (a scenario the notes had mapped, so we score those rotated, not missed), and the equity-caution calls on the Nasdaq and semiconductors are forward-guidance theses that saw the thesis-direction drop early, then reversed: they are open, currently offside, pending their stated invalidation.

How we keep score

When a call is open, complete, or invalidated

This page is a point-in-time record, refreshed on each new Premium and reviewed weekly, with the as-of date stamped at the top. It is not an intraday ticker. Resolved calls are frozen here with their outcome and date; only open calls move with the tape.

Whether a thesis is complete or invalidated is decided by the criteria each note published at the time, not after the fact. Every Premium states its scenario triggers and invalidation levels in advance, and we hold ourselves to them:

• Open: the scenario is still in play. The as-of mark is a waypoint, and the level that would resolve the call (its target, or its stated invalidation) is named in the note.
• Complete: the base case reached its stated target or horizon. Locked with the date.
• Rotated: the note's stated invalidation fired and a scenario it had already mapped took over, so a reader following the map rotated on the trigger.
• Invalidated / counter-thesis: the stated invalidation fired against the call. Locked with the date, and marked a miss.

Each row also carries a status. ○ Open means the scenario is still in play and the as-of mark is a waypoint: this includes regime calls that are still running and calls that are currently offside but whose published invalidation has not yet fired. ● Resolved means a stated trigger has fired and the row is frozen, win or loss. We do not retire a call early or late, only when its own criteria say so. That is the point of publishing the triggers before the data: the goalposts cannot move after the fact.

Levels: US Treasury yields via FRED; FX, commodities and equities via market tape; entry levels are the close on or nearest each note's publish date, current levels as of 19 June 2026. Brent's current level is indicative pending a settled print. This page is editorial commentary on observable market developments and a record of published views. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and is not a representation that any reader achieved these results. Past performance is not indicative of future results. We read the data. We call the paths.