FO Research / Equities
US equities,
structurally read.
Sector rotation, AI-capex pass-through, consumer-discretionary risk and the equity-positioning consequences of higher-for-longer rates.
3 reports filed under Equities
FO Analysis: Held Out for the IPOs.
The shorthand: Nasdaq -4.2% Friday with a record point drop, S&P 500 -2.65% for a ~$1.8T market-cap wipeout, SOX -8.8%, VIX +39%, HY OAS 2.76 close (from 2.74 prior; credit refused to widen), Alphabet announcing a ~$80bn equity raise to help fund $180-190bn of 2026 capex, Anthropic confidentially filing for IPO at a ~$965bn last private mark, and the mainstream reporting cycle picking up the mechanism: model routing. The era of one model at premium price is being tested. The IPO valuations resting on that era are the cleanest tell on which way it breaks.
FO Analysis: Six Pillars. One Regime.
The shorthand: April core PCE 3.3% on the year, the 30-year sitting on 5%, the front end pricing relief the long end will not ratify, Brent back through 93, USD/JPY 159, semis a record share of the S&P, and credit spreads 272bp tight. Six pillars active, one regime.
A Hot Print, A Cold Consumer
The retail print is a fuel-price effect, not a consumption signal. Real consumer stress sits at the income tail, where a 3.6% savings rate, $1.28T in revolving credit, and the 2026 federal student-loan collection restart make the third quarter the deciding window for the consumer-discretionary trade.