FO Research / equities

US equities,
structurally read.

Sector rotation, AI-capex pass-through, consumer-discretionary risk and the equity-positioning consequences of higher-for-longer rates.

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1 report filed under equities

A Hot Print, A Cold Consumer

The retail print is a fuel-price effect, not a consumption signal. Real consumer stress sits at the income tail, where a 3.6% savings rate, $1.28T in revolving credit, and the 2026 federal student-loan collection restart make the third quarter the deciding window for the consumer-discretionary trade.

09 May 2026 2-3Q · High — structural consumer-discretionary risk Analysis 19 min read min