Research
A Hot Print, A Cold Consumer
Why the March Retail Beat Is a Fuel-Price Effect — and What Sits Below the Aggregate
The March US retail-sales print rose 1.7%, comfortably above consensus. The street took it as constructive on consumer resilience. Strip out the gas-station receipts that account for most of the increase and real personal consumption rose 0.2%. The aggregate is a fuel-price pass-through. The underlying consumer is not the story the headline tells.
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