Research
The Long Bond Disconnect
The Long Bond Disconnect, the Bond Vigilantes, and the Math the Fed Cannot Reach
The Fed has cut 175 basis points across six meetings. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5% this week. Over the entire easing cycle, the 10-year fell just 35 bps. The disconnect between Fed policy and the long end of the curve is the most important rates story unfolding right now — and analysts who track this relationship back to 1990 describe it as unprecedented.
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