FO Research / Consumer

The US consumer,
below the headline.

Income-cohort consumption, balance-sheet stress, retail-print mechanics and the catalysts that move the median consumer trade.

1 report

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1 report filed under Consumer

A Hot Print, A Cold Consumer

The retail print is a fuel-price effect, not a consumption signal. Real consumer stress sits at the income tail, where a 3.6% savings rate, $1.28T in revolving credit, and the 2026 federal student-loan collection restart make the third quarter the deciding window for the consumer-discretionary trade.

09 May 2026 2-3Q · High — structural consumer-discretionary risk Rates Fed Inflation Equities Consumer Analysis 20 min read min