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Pre-London

Pre-London: China beats, Brent eases, Canada CPI due

FO News: Pre-London

Mon 19 Oct · / 06:19 GMT

Overnight

* price up · price down*

Rates

  • 4.73% US 2y yield up 1bp, hike talk lingers
  • 5.07% US 10y yield down 1bp

FX

  • 0.6972 AUD/USD +0.4% on China GDP beat
  • 1.1221 EUR/USD, below 1.1250

Commodities

  • $107.5 Brent -2.2% vs $109.86 Fri settle
  • $4,177 gold +0.3%, firmer in Asia

Equities

  • S&P futures +0.8% after chip slide
  • Asia mixed: Nikkei -0.6%, KOSPI +1.4%

Gulf

  • IRGC: tanker hit mine in Hormuz (state media)
  • Iran FM still studying US reply on Hormuz plan

Data overnight

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
CN GDP y/y4.5%4.4%4.3%
CN GDP q/q1.2%1.0%0.9%
CN retail1.1%0.5%0.4%
CN IP y/y5.5%5.5%5.2%
JP 3ry m/m-0.1%-0.4%0.2%

* above fcst · below · in line*

Today ( / 12:30 GMT)

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
▫️CA CPI y/ydue3.2%3.0%
  • Lavrov visits Tehran; Egypt parliament on Saudi support
  • Tue: UK labour data / 06:00 GMT

Tape

AssetLevelChg
DXY101.87+0.1%
EUR/USD1.1221-0.2%
GBP/USD1.33260.0%
AUD/USD0.6972+0.4%
US 2y4.73+1bp
US 10y5.07-1bp
Brent107.5-2.2%
Gold4177+0.3%

* price up · price down · flat/unverified*

Positioning check

*(COT as of Tue 13 Oct)*

China beat favours the Aussie, but leveraged funds are net long near 3y high (89th); move may stall. CAD net short, among largest in 3y (10th), into CPI.

MarketNetWk chg3y pctPosition vs 3y range
AUD+50,591-3,54289thNet long, near 3y high
CAD-88,112-8,48710thNet short, among largest in 3y

What it means

A firm China print and softer Brent cool the inflation pulse into London, with Canada CPI the main test and Gulf shipping risk still live.

FO ties

Assets: DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, US 2Y, US 10Y, Brent, Gold

FO view: A firm China print and softer Brent cool the inflation pulse into London, with Canada CPI the main test and Gulf shipping risk still live.

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

Pre-NY

Pre-New York: hot import prices, dollar still soft into the open

FO News: Pre-New York

Fri 16 Oct · / 12:58 GMT

Since London

* price up · price down*

Rates

  • 5.12% US 10y yield up 3bp into open
  • 4.77% US 2y yield up on hot import prices

FX

  • 101.77 DXY, off 0.3% despite hot prices
  • 1.3332 GBP/USD leads, AUD/USD +0.5%

Commodities

  • $4,197 gold +0.7% as dollar softens
  • $106.0 Brent little changed, +0.1%

Gulf

  • Yanbu alert then all-clear, no damage confirmed
  • Iran state media tanker fire claim, unconfirmed

Data since London ( / 09:00 GMT)

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
EZ HICP3.8%3.8%-
EZ core2.5%2.5%-

* above fcst · below · in line*

US data ( / 12:30 GMT)

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
ImpP m/m+1.1%+1.0%+0.7%
ImpP y/y8.1%8.2%-
ExpP m/m+2.2%+0.9%+0.6%
NY svcs-20.7-4.1-8.7

* above fcst · below · in line*

Still ahead ( / 13:15 GMT)

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
▫️IP m/mdue+0.4%0.0%
  • US cash open / 13:30 GMT
  • No Fed speakers on today's calendar

Tape

AssetLevelChg
DXY101.77-0.3%
EUR/USD1.1246+0.2%
GBP/USD1.3332+0.4%
AUD/USD0.6957+0.5%
US 2y4.77%+1.5bp
US 10y5.12%+2.8bp
Brent106.0+0.1%
Gold4197+0.7%

* price up · price down · flat/unverified*

Positioning check

*(COT as of Tue 6 Oct)*

Hot import prices support the dollar; DX net long, mid-range (63rd pct). AUD net long near 3y high (92nd), US 2y net short among smallest in 3y (98th); moves may be stretched.

MarketNet3y pctPosition vs 3y range
DX+86463rdNet long, mid-range
AUD+54,13392ndNet long, near 3y high
US 2y-1,257,48498thNet short, among smallest in 3y

What it means

Hot import and export prices extend the week's inflation run, yet the dollar is softer into the open and yields are only modestly higher.

FO ties

Assets: DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, US 2Y, US 10Y, Brent, Gold

FO view: Hot import and export prices extend the week's inflation run, yet the dollar is softer into the open and yields are only modestly higher.

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

Pre-London

Pre-London: Warsh quiet, dollar soft, EZ HICP final due

FO News: Pre-London

Fri 16 Oct · 10:30 Dubai / 06:30 GMT

Overnight

* price up · price down*

Rates

  • US 10y yield down to 5.09 after hot PPI fade
  • Warsh: no Oct/Dec signal, will not prejudge

FX

  • DXY ~101.9, soft vs ~102 NY close
  • EUR/USD 1.124 · GBP/USD 1.331 bid

Commodities

  • Brent Asia 105.4 (-0.5% vs 105.92 settle)
  • Gold ~4,194, bid as dollar softens

Gulf

  • UAE MoD intercepted Iranian drone, no damage
  • Saudi-led coalition drone intercept, Eastern Province

Data overnight

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
SE U-rate8.6%8.6%-

* above fcst · below · in line*

Today (13:00 Dubai / 09:00 GMT)

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
▫️EZ HICP y/ydue3.8%3.2%
▫️EZ core y/ydue2.5%2.4%
▫️US ImpP m/mdue+0.8%+0.7%
▫️US IP m/mdue+0.4%0.0%
  • No Fed/ECB/BoE speakers on today's calendar (Warsh already overnight)

Tape

AssetLevelChg
DXY101.9-0.1%
EUR/USD1.124+0.4%
GBP/USD1.331+0.6%
AUD/USD0.695-0.5%
US 2y4.75-
US 10y5.09-10bp
Brent105.4-0.5%
Gold4194+0.6%

* price up · price down · flat/unverified*

Positioning check

*(COT as of Tue 6 Oct)*

Hot data supports the dollar; DX net long, mid-range (63rd pct). EUR net short near 3y extreme (6th); move may stall.

MarketNet3y pctPosition vs 3y range
DX+86463rdNet long, mid-range
EUR-44,2616thNet short, among largest in 3y

What it means

After two hot US inflation prints the dollar stays soft into London, with Euro area HICP final due to confirm the energy-led flash.

FO ties

Assets: DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, US 2Y, US 10Y, Brent, Gold

FO view: After two hot US inflation prints the dollar stays soft into London, with Euro area HICP final due to confirm the energy-led flash.

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

Alert

US crude inventories draw 8.6M barrels vs flat consensus

  • US commercial crude -8.6M vs +0.1M expected (prior -3.2M); week ending 9 Oct
  • Distillate -2.5M vs -1.6M expected (prior flat)
  • Gasoline +3.5M vs -0.5M expected (prior +0.4M); Cushing crude +1.9M
  • Released 20:00 Dubai / 16:00 GMT

Assets: WTI, Brent, Diesel cracks, Gasoline cracks

FO view: A near-record weekly crude draw with distillates still falling leaves the US physical balance tighter even as emergency barrels are sped up, keeping the diesel crack premium in focus.

FO ties

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

Pre-NY

Hot PPI on the board: +1.3% m/m, dollar still soft into the open

Since London price up price down

Rates
  • 3.37% Bund 10y, yield down, lowest since early Sep
  • 5.07% US 10y, yield down into the data
FX
  • 102.0 DXY, off 18-month high
Commodities
  • $4,172 gold, post-CPI rebound
  • $104.4 Brent, no Gulf supply hit
Gulf
  • Hormuz tanker fire claim, unconfirmed

US data

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
PPI m/m+1.3%+0.6%+0.4%
PPI y/y6.3%5.4%-
Core m/m+0.7%+0.3%-
Core y/y5.0%4.4%-
Retail m/m+0.8%+0.3%-
Ret exauto+0.9%+0.5%-
Claims199k200k-
Philly Fed20.928.0-
Empire25.512.0-

above fcst below in line

Still ahead

  • Cash open:
  • Warsh, IMF Bangkok:

Tape

DXY 102.0 -0.6EUR/USD 1.121 -GBP/USD 1.325 -AUD/USD 0.698 -US 2y 4.75 -US 10y 5.07 -Brent 104.4 -Gold 4,172 -

price up price down flat/unverified

⚠️ Positioning check Hot data supports the dollar, but positioning is mid-range, so the move is not crowded (DX net long, 63rd percentile). EUR net short near a 3y extreme (6th), GBP net long near a 3y low (10th) and AUD net long near a 3y high (92nd) are where a hawkish move could stall or snap back. Gold: net long, mid-range (33rd).

Assets: DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, US 2Y, US 10Y, Brent, Gold

What it means Two hot inflation prints, yet the dollar and long end still have not repriced hawkish.

FO view: A second hot inflation print in two sessions sits beside a tape that has still not bought the dollar or sold duration hard, the same settle pattern the desk scored on yesterday's CPI.

FO ties

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

Alert

US PPI red hot: +1.3% m/m vs +0.6%

US data

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
PPI m/m+1.3%+0.6%+0.4%
PPI y/y6.3%5.4%-
Core m/m+0.7%+0.3%-
Core y/y5.0%4.4%-
Retail m/m+0.8%+0.3%-
Ret exauto+0.9%+0.5%-
Claims199k200k-
Philly Fed20.928.0-

above fcst below in line

Likely impact price up price down

Rates
  • US 2y, yield up: hike odds reprice
FX
  • DXY: wider rate gap
  • EUR, GBP, AUD vs USD
Commodities
  • Gold: higher real yields
⚠️ Positioning check Hot data supports the dollar, but positioning is mid-range, so the move is not crowded (DX net long, 63rd percentile). EUR is net short, among the largest in 3y (6th percentile), and GBP net long sits near a 3y low (10th): further EUR/USD and GBP/USD downside may run out sooner than the data suggests. US 2y: net short, among the smallest in 3y (98th).

Assets: US 2Y yields, DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, Gold

What it means Second hot inflation print in two days; Fed tightening case back at the centre of the dollar view.

FO view: A pipeline print this hot, a day after a 3.7% CPI and alongside strong spending, keeps the Fed tightening case at the centre of the dollar view and tests the post-CPI fade in the dollar and long bonds that we scored this morning.

FO ties

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

Alert

US PPI due at : consensus 0.6% m/m

Today

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
PPI m/mdue0.6%0.4%
PPI y/ydue5.5%5.4%

above fcst below in line due

Still ahead

  • Retail sales and jobless claims:

Assets: US 2Y yields, DXY, Gold

What it means Producer prices are the next test of whether the CPI surprise reflects broader cost pressure.

FO view: Producer prices are the next test of whether the CPI surprise reflects broader cost pressure.

FO ties

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

Pre-London

Hot core CPI, UK GDP beat: +0.1% vs -0.1%

Overnight price up price down

Rates
  • 4.82% US 2y, yield up after hot core CPI
FX
  • 102.6 DXY close, off 18-month high
Commodities
  • $4,144 gold, rebound after CPI washout
  • $104.4 Brent, Gulf claims, no supply hit
Gulf
  • Houthi Jeddah strike claim, no Saudi confirmation

Data overnight

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
US CPI y/y3.7%3.6%-
US core mm+0.3%+0.2%-
US core yy2.6%2.5%-
UK GDP m/m+0.1%-0.1%-
UK IP m/m+0.8%-0.1%-
UK mfg m/m+1.2%0.0%-

above fcst below in line

Today

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
US PPI m/mdue+0.6%+0.4%
Core PPIdue+0.3%-
Retail m/mdue+0.3%-
Claimsdue200k-
Philly Feddue28.0-

above fcst below in line due

Tape

DXY cls 102.6 -US 2y 4.82 -Brent 104.4 -1.6%Gold 4,144 -

price up price down flat/unverified

Assets: US 2Y yields, DXY, Gold

What it means Hot core CPI plus a UK GDP beat keeps both central banks leaning hawkish; oil is the swing factor.

FO view: After a hot CPI, a PPI print at or above 0.6% m/m would reinforce the view that the disinflation path has stalled.

FO ties

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

Alert

Dollar slips from 18-month high as Treasuries rally in Asia

Asia session price up price down

Rates
  • US 10y, yield about 21bp below the post-CPI high
FX
  • 102.06 DXY, eased after Wednesday's 18-month high
Commodities
  • Gold, rebound of more than 1% from a one-week low

Tape

DXY 102.06 -

price up price down flat/unverified

Assets: DXY, US 10Y yields, Gold

What it means Cautious Fed remarks are capping the hike repricing, so PPI is the swing factor for the dollar today.

FO view: Cautious remarks from Fed officials are capping the hike repricing, so PPI becomes the swing factor for the dollar today.

FO ties

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

Alert

Australian employment unexpectedly falls in September

Australia data

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
Employmentfellrise-
Unemp rate4.7%-4.7%

above fcst below in line

Market reaction price up price down

FX
  • AUD underperformed as RBA hike odds were scaled back

Assets: AUD/USD, Australian 3Y yields

What it means A softening labour market gives the RBA room to pause, diverging from the Fed debate.

FO view: A softening labour market gives the RBA room to pause, diverging from the Fed debate.

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

Alert

US 2Y yield touches 4.95% after hot CPI, then settles at 4.80%

US close price up price down

Rates
  • 4.80% US 2y, yield touched 4.95% intraday after hot CPI, settled near 4.80%
  • 5.19% US 10y, yield eased about 2bp
Equities
  • S&P 500, down more than 1% as hike bets rose

Tape

US 2y 4.80 -US 10y 5.19 -2bp

price up price down flat/unverified

Assets: US 2Y yields, US 10Y yields, S&P 500

What it means The front end is carrying the inflation repricing while the long end held steady, a flattening signal worth watching into PPI.

FO view: The front end is carrying the inflation repricing while the long end held steady, a flattening signal worth watching into PPI.

FO ties

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

Alert

US CPI runs hotter than expected: 3.7% y/y vs 3.6%

US data

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
CPI y/y3.7%3.6%3.4%
CPI m/m0.6%--
Core m/m0.3%0.2%-
Core y/y2.6%2.5%-
Gasoline mm+9.1%--

above fcst below in line

Assets: US 2Y yields, DXY, Gold, S&P 500

What it means A firmer core print makes near-term Fed easing harder to justify and keeps pressure on front-end rates.

FO view: A firmer core print makes near-term Fed easing harder to justify and keeps pressure on front-end rates.

FO ties

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

FO Research · Times shown in GST · Not investment advice

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product. Items may be updated after publication; updates are marked.