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Geopolitics
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All FO Research reports filed under Geopolitics.

7 reports
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7 reports filed under Geopolitics

The Shock Writes. The Committee Waits.: cover The Shock Writes. The Committee Waits.

The strait went from warning to exchange and Monday's settles decided: crude up two dollars and change on both benchmarks, the thirty-year up close to four basis points, above its 5.20 pivot, the two-year flat, gold flat, credit quiet and the desk's refining margin holding just under the record it set on Friday. On Friday the committee wrote the front end while the long end stood still. On Monday the shock wrote the long end while the committee waited. The desk scores its registered discriminators here.

The strait went kinetic and Monday settled it: WTI +2.36 to 85.76, the thirty-year +3.9bp to 5.249, the two-year flat, the desk's crack gauge steady at 62.14, credit quiet. The registered discriminators fired toward the floor, and the desk scores them where it said it would. Rates Inflation Energy Geopolitics Brief 11 min read min FO Analysis: The Crack Premium.: cover FO Analysis: The Crack Premium.

The shorthand: crude is the price on the screen, products are the price the economy pays, and the gap between them set a record on 16 July before rolling over this week. That gap is the transmission, it reaches the consumer with a lag of one to three weeks, and it lands in the August inflation print rather than the July one.

1TO3Q · High · transmission mechanism | Moderate · persistence into autumn Rates Inflation Energy Geopolitics Analysis 39 min read min The War Is Over. The Floor Isn't.: cover The War Is Over. The Floor Isn't.

The Iran ceasefire is signed and Brent has fallen into the high 70s, yet the 30-year has not followed it down. The financial press is now asking why. The desk answered it before the question was asked: the floor under the long end was never the war. It is the bid, and this week the bid got thinner while the deficit got heavier.

Rates Bonds Central Banks Energy Geopolitics Brief 8 min read min FO Analysis: The Buyers Go Home.: cover FO Analysis: The Buyers Go Home.

The shorthand: a credible ceasefire framework arrived and the 30-year held 4.97%, higher on the week, not lower. The Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to 1.00%, a 31-year high, and cut its bond buying. Credit compressed (HY OAS 2.71) rather than widened, so this is not a fear trade. USD/JPY barely moved at 160, so the carry unwind is a slow burn, not yet a shock. The war premium leaving could not lift the long end off the floor, because the floor is the vanishing buyer, not the conflict. Warsh meets that floor tomorrow.

2TO4Q · High · structural-floor regime, multi-quarter horizon Rates Bonds Fed Central Banks Geopolitics Fiscal Analysis 32 min read min The Pivot, Fractured: cover The Pivot, Fractured

Brent +2.39%, WTI -4.68%, same session, same news. The Brent to WTI spread is the market pricing residual Hormuz risk in real time.

Energy Geopolitics Brief 7 min read min The Pivot, Partial: cover The Pivot, Partial

The Iran deal framework: three sticking points before the deal closes, three caveats on the unwind itself.

Rates Energy Geopolitics Brief 6 min read min Project Freedom & The Guadar Bypass: cover Project Freedom & The Guadar Bypass

This is no longer a bilateral U.S.–Iran story. It is a U.S.–China proxy confrontation being fought on Pakistani soil — and the battlefield is the price of oil and the inflation print that determines whether the Federal Reserve has any room to ease.

2-3Q · High — structural, not tactical Energy Geopolitics UAE Analysis 18 min read min