Research
The War Is Over. The Floor Isn't.
The war is over, or close enough that the market is trading it that way. The United States and Iran have signed, the first tankers have cleared the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent has fallen hard, into the high 70s from the mid 80s in a matter of sessions. This is the de-escalation the whole curve was waiting for. And the long end of the US bond market has barely moved. The 30-year sits at 4.90%, almost exactly where it traded through the worst of the conflict.
The financial press has noticed, and this week it asked the question out loud: the war is over, so why are bond yields not lower? It is the right question. The desk answered it before it was asked. The floor under the long end was never the war premium. It is the bid. And in the space of one week, the bid got thinner while the deficit got heavier.
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