Research
The Pivot, Partial
President Trump posted on Saturday that the “final aspects and details” of a US-Iran deal are being discussed and will be announced shortly. Axios reports the draft includes a 60-day ceasefire extension, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz with no tolls, Iran clearing mines it had deployed, and the United States lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports. A US response to a revised Iran-Pakistan proposal is expected today.
The headline read is straightforward. The war premium is unwinding. The retracements visible across markets since the March peaks (Brent down 12.5% from $118, the US 10-Year eased 10 basis points this week, the dollar 1.2 points off its 100.5 March peak) are now backed by an actual deal framework, not just talks optimism.
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Sources. US President statements via White House social media, 23 to 24 May 2026. Axios, US-Iran deal framework draft, 24 May 2026. Iranian state media (Fars, Tasnim), 23 to 24 May 2026. Reuters, Iran-Pakistan revised proposal, 24 May 2026. UK Royal Fleet Auxiliary, RFA Lyme Bay mine-clearing readiness at Gibraltar. Reporting on the highly enriched uranium handling, sanctions-relief sequencing and the Israel-Lebanon dimension of the draft MoU via Axios and Reuters, 23 to 24 May 2026. U.S. Treasury / Federal Reserve via FRED: DGS10, DCOILBRENTEU; ICE DXY via Bloomberg. Financial Oracle SPC: The Long Bond Disconnect (8 May 2026), The Last AAA (19 May 2026), The April Minutes Ratify the Book (20 May 2026).
Financial Oracle SPC. Editorial commentary on observable market and policy developments. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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