oil
research.

Inside four sessions crude spiked to a new leg high on the war and gave nearly all of it back when the weekend brought a pause in the strikes and revived hopes of talks. Brent touched 100 and retreated toward 90. The long end of the curve moved five basis points up and four back and never left the top of its band, and rate-rise bets rose on the spike and kept most of the move through the fade. A floor that absorbs the shock in both directions is not riding the shock. It is structural. The Fed decides Wednesday.

The shorthand: crude is the price on the screen, products are the price the economy pays, and the gap between them set a record on 16 July before rolling over this week. That gap is the transmission, it reaches the consumer with a lag of one to three weeks, and it lands in the August inflation print rather than the July one.

The shorthand: April core PCE 3.3% on the year, the 30-year sitting on 5%, the front end pricing relief the long end will not ratify, Brent back through 93, USD/JPY 159, semis a record share of the S&P, and credit spreads 272bp tight. Six pillars active, one regime.

Brent +2.39%, WTI -4.68%, same session, same news. The Brent to WTI spread is the market pricing residual Hormuz risk in real time.

The Iran deal framework: three sticking points before the deal closes, three caveats on the unwind itself.