Oil
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On 18 August this desk wrote that late July's seven hawkish dissents across three central banks were the high-water mark of rate-rise pricing, and named the sequence that would make that mark a tide line: the shock returns, the August inflation print lands hot into the September decision and the rise comes back.

The first enlarged buyback was disappointing before it ran. Treasury capped Thursday's ten to twenty year operation at $6bn, above the $4bn floor it had guided and below the $10bn some had come to expect, and the curve sold the number into a $100 barrel: the ten-year to its highest in nearly three years, the thirty-year into the upper half of the range the desk redrew in August, the two-year backing up toward the Fed's own week. On Thursday the desk got both hands on one tape, a $22bn thirty-year auction at 18:00 London and the operation itself an hour later. The read was written down before the prints and is scored on the settles below.

The strait went from warning to exchange and Monday's settles decided: crude up two dollars and change on both benchmarks, the thirty-year up close to four basis points, above its 5.20 pivot, the two-year flat, gold flat, credit quiet and the desk's refining margin holding just under the record it set on Friday. On Friday the committee wrote the front end while the long end stood still. On Monday the shock wrote the long end while the committee waited. The desk scores its registered discriminators here.

Inside four sessions crude spiked to a new leg high on the war and gave nearly all of it back when the weekend brought a pause in the strikes and revived hopes of talks. Brent touched 100 and retreated toward 90. The long end of the curve moved five basis points up and four back and never left the top of its band, and rate-rise bets rose on the spike and kept most of the move through the fade. A floor that absorbs the shock in both directions is not riding the shock. It is structural. The Fed decides Wednesday.

The shorthand: crude is the price on the screen, products are the price the economy pays, and the gap between them set a record on 16 July before rolling over this week. That gap is the transmission, it reaches the consumer with a lag of one to three weeks, and it lands in the August inflation print rather than the July one.

The shorthand: April core PCE 3.3% on the year, the 30-year sitting on 5%, the front end pricing relief the long end will not ratify, Brent back through 93, USD/JPY 159, semis a record share of the S&P, and credit spreads 272bp tight. Six pillars active, one regime.

Brent +2.39%, WTI -4.68%, same session, same news. The Brent to WTI spread is the market pricing residual Hormuz risk in real time.

The Iran deal framework: three sticking points before the deal closes, three caveats on the unwind itself.