Research
The Pivot, Fractured
On Sunday the desk wrote that the pivot was partial. Overnight on Tuesday, it fractured.
US Central Command conducted “self-defence” strikes in southern Iran near Bandar Abbas, targeting Iranian boats trying to deploy mines and missile launch sites. President Trump posted that enriched uranium “will be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed”, warning “it will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all, Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before.” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that strikes against Lebanon’s Hezbollah will be intensified.
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Sources. US Central Command statement on self-defence strikes in southern Iran, 26 May 2026. CNBC, oil prices coverage and CENTCOM reporting, 26 May 2026. CNBC, eToro quote on Brent vs WTI structural divergence, 26 May 2026. US President Trump statements via Truth Social, 25 to 26 May 2026. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, public statement on Hezbollah escalation, 25 May 2026. Israeli Channel 12 on senior Israeli official: “containment is over”. Al Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Ministry position on uranium handover. Reuters, US Secretary of State Rubio remarks in India. UBS, oil market inventory and production loss commentary, 23 May 2026. U.S. Treasury / Federal Reserve via FRED. TradingView intraday on Brent, WTI, US Treasury yields, DXY, gold. Financial Oracle SPC: The Long Bond Disconnect (8 May), The Last AAA (19 May), The Pivot, Partial (24 May).
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