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The Pipeline Translated.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge came in this morning, and it came in hot. Headline PCE rose to a 4.1% annual rate, its highest since April 2023, on a 0.4% monthly gain. The core, which strips out food and energy and is the number the Fed actually steers by, rose to 3.4%, its highest since October 2023, on a 0.3% month. Both were in line with consensus; the only soft edge was a headline monthly print a tenth below expectations. This is not a surprise. It is a confirmation. And it is the confirmation the desk has been pointing at since May.
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