Reference point: levels as of 20 August 2026. Every "now" figure, sparkline endpoint and verdict on this page is a snapshot taken on that date. Entry is each call's publish date. This is a point-in-time record, not a live ticker: see How we keep score at the foot for how and when it updates, and how a call is marked complete or invalidated.

The spine · our highest-conviction macro calls

Long dollar. No cuts. The floor holds.

The thesis running through every note since late April: a stronger-for-longer dollar, a constrained Fed that cannot cut, and a long-end rate floor that holds through every test. It paid through the summer, and every call below is still open on its published terms. The headline figure is the move the thesis made available: the maximum favorable travel while the call was in play, which is what the analysis put in front of a reader who used it. Underneath it we also show where the same call sits today, held from the published price with no timing assumed, because a thesis in progress retraces and we do not hide that. Entries and exits are the reader's own. We call the paths; the reader trades them.

The full record · every stated cross-asset bias

The complete scorecard, scored honestly

The spine above is the highest-conviction book. Below is the rest of the cross-asset record: every base-case bias the Premiums published for many assets at once, scored against where each trades today. Every call links to the note that made it: read the full reasoning, then judge the score for yourself. Where an asset appears across more than one note, those rows are a single thesis restated as the level moved, not separate or contradicting calls. Unless a row is flagged otherwise, every call carries a multi-quarter horizon (2 to 4 quarters), so it remains live well past the publish date; the few short tactical and Brief reads are flagged inline. Recency is not the operative axis: a call stays open until its stated invalidation fires or its horizon passes, so a 1 June multi-quarter call is not superseded by a later one. The rates and credit calls are where the desk is strongest. We mark the rest plainly: the Brent range held, broke lower on the US-Iran ceasefire, then returned as the ceasefire expired; the 19 June "gold lower on the dollar" call missed as gold ran to records; the semiconductor-leadership call missed while its counterpart, semis-underperform, has come right; and the broad AI-caution call on the Nasdaq is a forward-guidance thesis that dropped early, then reversed, and remains open and offside pending its stated invalidation.

How we keep score

When a call is open, complete, or invalidated

This page is a point-in-time record, refreshed on each new Premium and reviewed weekly, with the as-of date stamped at the top. It is not an intraday ticker. Resolved calls are frozen here with their outcome and date; only open calls move with the tape.

Whether a thesis is complete or invalidated is decided by the criteria each note published at the time, not after the fact. Every Premium states its scenario triggers and invalidation levels in advance, and we hold ourselves to them:

• Open: the scenario is still in play. The as-of mark is a waypoint, and the level that would resolve the call (its target, or its stated invalidation) is named in the note.
• Complete: the base case reached its stated target or horizon. Locked with the date.
• Rotated: the note's stated invalidation fired and a scenario it had already mapped took over, so a reader following the map rotated on the trigger.
• Invalidated: the stated invalidation fired against the call. Locked with the date and the level. A closed call keeps the move it made available on the page, because deleting it would misreport what the analysis showed while it was live, and it states its close plainly alongside.

Two different things can happen when an invalidation fires, and we separate them rather than collapse both into one red mark. A thesis that ran a long way before its invalidation fired is not the same as one that never worked, and a record that scored them identically would be telling you less than it knows. So we mark a closed call Ran, then closed when it made at least 100 pips, 15 basis points or 1% available before the trigger fired, and Missed when it did not. That threshold is fixed in advance, published here, and applied to every call equally, so the distinction can never be chosen after the event to flatter a result. The move made available and the close are both shown, and you can weigh them yourself.

Each row also carries a status. ○ Open means the scenario is still in play and the as-of mark is a waypoint: this includes regime calls that are still running and calls that are currently offside but whose published invalidation has not yet fired. ● Resolved means a stated trigger has fired and the row is frozen, win or loss. We do not retire a call early or late, only when its own criteria say so. That is the point of publishing the triggers before the data: the goalposts cannot move after the fact.

Levels: US Treasury yields via FRED, extended with same-day end-of-day government-bond prints for the one or two sessions FRED has not yet published, so that every sparkline endpoint matches its stated current level; FX, commodities and equities via market tape; entry levels are the close on or nearest each note's publish date, current levels as of 20 August 2026. This page is editorial commentary on observable market developments and a record of published views. It is not investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation, and is not a representation that any reader achieved these results. Past performance is not indicative of future results. We read the data. We call the paths.