Regime
The Disinflation Arrives. The Floor Doesn't Break.
The inflation print the market had been waiting for arrived yesterday, and it arrived soft in every line. Headline CPI rose 3.5% on the year against a 3.8% consensus, below the low end of forecasts and down from 4.2% the month before. Core, which strips out food and energy, fell to 2.6% from 2.9%, also below consensus. On the month, headline prices actually fell 0.4%, a sharp swing from a 0.5% gain the month before, and core was flat at 0.0% against a 0.3% consensus. This is not a soft headline sitting on a hot core. It is soft all the way through.
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| ✓The disinflation is real. So is the shallow rally: the full section, every level dated and sourced. |
| ✓The market is trading July, not June: the complete read behind the desk. |
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