Capital,
framed by structure.
FO Research delivers institutional-grade analysis across rates, FX, equities and energy, and the policy, inflation and geopolitics that move them: structural reads and tactical cross-asset breakdowns for sophisticated allocators who think in capital, risk and structure. Alongside the research sit live market tools: FO News Live, the economic calendar, CFTC positioning, a central bank tracker and, for Premium, the daily Market Regime page.
What FO Research Is
FO Research is the public research publication of Financial Oracle SPC: editorial macro research for allocators, family offices, institutional desks and sophisticated readers. It is separate from the fund and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.
Subscribers receive the desk’s macro thinking in full: structural views, scenario maps, invalidation criteria and pair by pair tactical FX reads, alongside the live market tools.
Distribution is controlled by design. The publication operates for a sophisticated reader base (allocators, family offices, institutional desks) rather than chasing reach.
Editorial Principle
The published surface is structure and reasoning: the desk’s calibrated read on every macro shift. Subscribers receive the framework allocators use to read the macro backdrop; institutional research, written for readers who think in capital, risk and structure.
Latest Reports
Selected long-form analyses, market breakdowns and tactical cross-asset reads. Each opens with its public teaser and contents; the full reports are issued to Premium subscribers.
Warsh Won't Signal. The Data Will.
The Chair used his final scheduled public appearance before the blackout to decline to signal the October decision. He will judge October and December at the meetings, he will not say what he might do for the rest of the year, and he called the investment surge the most important upside development. September consumer prices ran 3.7 per cent on the year and producer prices 1.3 per cent on the month against 0.6 expected. The committee's September projections already carry one more rise: a projection, not a commitment. Import prices added a third hot print on Friday afternoon. The tape moved by basis points, the thirty-year is trading just under the house 5.45 pivot, and the data, not the Chair, now carries the next twelve days.
The Print Was Hot. The Tape Sold It.
September CPI printed 0.6 on the month and 3.7 on the year, core 0.3 and 2.6, three of the four above consensus and the fourth on it, with gasoline up 9.1 per cent and over half the headline. The dollar index made an eighteen-month high within the hour and closed below it, the long end rallied four basis points, the breakeven moved two and the two-year held 4.80 at 4.82 while October pricing went to about one half and back to a third. Every registered test held and the one registered count did not start. The desk uses the settle to say two things in advance: the tactical stance on the dollar moves to reduce, and the founding dollar book is five and a half months into the two to three quarter horizon it was published with, so the desk says in advance that its end is to be watched for, with the criteria that close it published and the view carried forward under the 6 October map.
Gold Lost the Line. The Dollar Kept the Case.
Tuesday is the test, CPI Wednesday is the trigger. In August the desk set out both cases for gold at 4,449: above it with enlarged buybacks, the fiscal read; back under it while the two-year leads yields higher, the dollar's hawkish case. On Friday's settles the second has played out: gold near 4,194, the two-year up sixty-one basis points to the thirty-year's thirty-seven.
Duration Cleared. The Crowd Did Not.
The desk registered Thursday's two tests in advance and both printed. The Treasury's twenty to thirty year buyback was offered $14.9bn against a $6bn door and the issuer took every dollar of its maximum; the $22bn thirty-year reopening cleared at 5.618 with seventy-two per cent of the competitive issue going to indirect bidders and dealers taking under seven, and the long bond closed the week at 5.60, inside the range the desk redrew on 6 October. Credit crossed its line twice and the Premium's return condition, published in more than one wording, fired on the looser ones: scored as a miss against the desk's own drafting, with the weight held. The euro and dollar-index calls made new peaks while speculators added to a record gross euro short. Every call is scored below, including the two the desk owns this week: loose wordings and a note that arrived on Monday instead of Friday.
FO Analysis: The Price of Duration.
Weak data bought duration nothing: a payroll print of 29,000, a soft inflation gauge, and the thirty-year closed Monday at 5.66, a new high, with breakevens flat; the Treasury was offered forty-six billion dollars of long bonds against a six billion door; and high-yield spreads closed through the one level the desk published in August as its growth tell.
The Door Was Rushed. The Tell Fired.
The desk published its levels before the data, and last week the data answered three of them. Payrolls printed 29,000 and the two-year held the 4.80 line the desk had set as the test of a second rise. The Treasury's buyback door was offered forty-six billion dollars against a six billion limit, the queue the desk measured in August back at twice its size. And high-yield spreads closed through the 3.10 signal the desk published in August as the one number that changes its map. Every call is scored below, including the one the desk got wrong: retiring the queue claim two sessions before the queue returned.
The Record
We publish the read before the number, then score it in public afterwards. Every cross-asset bias the desk has stated is on one page, marked against real end-of-day levels, including the calls that have not worked. The scenarios and the invalidation levels are published in advance, so the goalposts cannot move after the fact.
The move made available, at peak
Peak is the maximum favourable travel each thesis made available while it was in play, measured on real end-of-day levels, not a realised return. Every call above remains open, and each carries the invalidation its note published in advance. Scored to 9 October 2026. We call the paths; the reader trades them.
Free Tools
Open to everyone, with the full view free with an email sign-up and no card required: FO News Live, the economic calendar and its central bank tracker, the CFTC positioning heatmap and surprise alerts by email. Every time shows in your own time zone. Follow FO News free on Telegram: every alert as it breaks.
01 FREE
Market alerts as the data lands and the pre-London and pre-New York briefings, with filters by type, asset, FO view, country and impact across the full history. Free with email: the FO view on each move and asset tags that track each market for 4 hours after the alert.
02 FREE
High impact events across the US, euro area, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland and China, with official actuals as they are released, green above consensus and red below, and every time in your own time zone. Free with email: the FO view on each release, what a beat or miss means for FX, yields and stocks and, on headline releases, how the currency and index moved afterwards.
03 FREE
The next meeting, the current rate and scheduled speeches for the nine central banks the calendar covers, with market-implied odds of a hold, hike or cut at each next meeting from prediction market pricing, refreshed hourly. Market prices, not an FO forecast.
Open the central bank tracker04 FREE
Every futures market the page tracks on one colour-coded heatmap, from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report: where large speculators sit against 20 years of weekly reports, and the change on the week. Click a market to open its full check, with the trader groups in two sets: the main CFTC split and funds detail.
05 FREE WITH EMAIL
An email when a high impact release lands well outside forecasts, at most three a day. A separate list, on by default for new members, that you can switch off in your account without leaving the research emails.
Join free06 FREE
Every FO News Live alert and briefing as it breaks, straight to your phone. Live now and free.
Join @FONewsLivePremium: Market Regime
The Market Regime page reads four pillars (growth, inflation, policy and financial conditions) into one headline regime call, with its confidence and how long it has lasted. It is updated daily and is part of FO Research Premium; the headline call and the four pillar readings stay open to everyone.
Updated daily
Built from official data, including FRED and the CFTC, and from market pricing. It describes how assets behaved in similar past conditions; it is not a forecast or a recommendation.
Subscribe to Premium See today’s headline callLearn · Open Access
The research is Premium; the machinery behind it stays open. These explainers cover what the notes rely on: term premium, the yield curve, the carry trade, real yields and the dollar. Free to read permanently, no subscription required. Browse the full Learn section
Real Yields and Breakevens: How TIPS Split the 10-Year Yield
PCE vs CPI: Two Inflation Gauges and the Wedge Between Them
How to Read a CPI Report: Headline, Core and Supercore
What Is a Credit Spread? HY OAS Explained
Bear Steepener vs Bull Flattener: Curve Moves Explained
FX Intervention and the Line at 160
What You Receive
The full output stack is Premium: every report in full alongside the desk’s scenario maps, FX pair tactical reads, downloadable PDFs and the daily Market Regime page. The Learn section, the mechanics explained plainly, stays open to every reader.
01 · PREMIUM
The desk’s event notes: tests registered before the data, scored after it, misses included. Macro cadence, delivered in full to subscribers.
02 · PREMIUM
Long-form structural research on dollar regimes, rate dynamics, energy politics and policy divergence: with scenario maps, invalidation criteria and FX pair by pair reads.
03 · PREMIUM
Cross-asset read: macro themes, FX pair tactical reads, three-scenario forward map and the desk watchlist. Event-driven cadence.
04 · INSTITUTIONAL
Full Premium archive plus the FO Tactical Watchlist: markers, levels and headlines the desk monitors over the next one to two weeks. By application.
Join Free
Your email unlocks the full FO News Live view with asset tags that track each market for 4 hours, the FO view and market moves on every calendar release and the full positioning check, with surprise alerts, every note’s teaser and each new Learn explainer by email. No card required; upgrade whenever a note earns it.
The Learn section and the scored record are open to everyone.
Subscription
Free with your email: the full FO News Live view with its asset tags, the FO view and market moves on the calendar, the full positioning check, surprise alerts, every Learn explainer in full and each note’s teaser and contents; the central bank tracker and the FO News Live filters are open to everyone. Premium, $49/mo or $490/yr (save 17%): every Brief and Analysis Report in full with its PDF, scenario maps, the full archive and the daily Market Regime page. Compare Free and Premium
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The opening of every note and the market tools in full with your email, plus the teasers and surprise alerts by email.
Upgrade to Premium any time.
FO Research Premium
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The desk read in full plus the daily Market Regime page: every report with its PDF, scenario maps, invalidation criteria and FX pair by pair reads. $49/mo or $490/yr (save 17%).
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FO Institutional
Bespoke institutional access
For allocators, family offices and institutional desks requiring direct access to the strategy desk.
Reviewed directly by the desk. No sales layer.
House, Governance & Authorship
London · Zurich · Dubai · Grand Cayman
Financial Oracle SPC is a Cayman Islands segregated portfolio company. FO Research is its public research publication, authored from a Dubai operating presence by the strategy desk and overseen by a Board of Directors operating across four jurisdictions.
Leadership & Governance
Directors, desk and committees across asset management, technology, finance, research and compliance.
Pardip Bansal
Chief Executive Officer · Founder
Hedge fund development, FX and global macro. Dubai operating presence with UK background.
LinkedIn
Filippo Asinari
Chief Technology Officer · Co-Founder
Quantitative systems and research infrastructure.
LinkedIn
Gilles Thorens
Chief Financial Officer
Fund finance, NAV oversight and institutional reporting.
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Claude R. Chaubert
Chief Compliance Officer
Regulatory framework, AML and Cayman compliance oversight.
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Devin Merdinligil
Chief Investment Officer
Operations, counterparty oversight and banking infrastructure.
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Strategy Desk
Research · Macro Framework
Discretionary macro framework, scenario maps and research authorship.
Quantitative Research
Systematic · Model R&D
Quantitative research, backtesting and model integrity.
Risk Committee
Governance · Capital Preservation
Position risk, drawdown monitoring and capital preservation oversight.
FO Research is the publication. Financial Oracle SPC is the fund. They share the same strategy desk and the same institutional tone. Public material is research only: no offer, no solicitation, no performance claims.
Frequently Asked
No. FO Research is a publication. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or fund interest. References to Financial Oracle SPC are for context, not solicitation.
FO Research is structural macro research, not a signals feed. The reasoning, scenario design and invalidation criteria travel through every report: the framework behind the view, not a screen of entry and exit prompts. We publish reasoning, not tips.
$49 per month, or $490 per year (a 17% saving on annual). Charged in USD via Stripe. Premium unlocks every publication in full: the FO Briefs, every FO Analysis Report with its archive grade PDF, the FO Market Breakdown, scenario maps with explicit triggers and invalidation criteria, pair by pair FX tactical reads (EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, CAD, CHF), full archive access and the daily Market Regime page. The record every call is scored against is public at /calls before you pay.
Open to everyone: the economic calendar schedule with actuals coloured against consensus, the central bank tracker, FO News Live headlines with filters across the full history, the positioning heatmap, the headline regime call, every Learn explainer, the opening of every Brief and Analysis Report and the scored record. Free membership needs only your email, no card, and adds the full FO News Live view with asset tags that track each market for 4 hours after an alert, the FO view on each calendar release with the market move after headline releases, the full positioning check for every market, surprise alerts by email and each note’s teaser by email as it ships. Premium, at $49 a month or $490 a year, adds every Brief and Analysis Report in full with its PDF, the FO Market Breakdown, the scenario maps and invalidation criteria, the full archive and the daily Market Regime page.
Without an account, FO News Live shows each alert’s headline and the first line of what it means, and the positioning page shows the heatmap with each market’s reading. Join free with your email and you see everything: the FO view, the full analysis, the key facts and the briefings in full on FO News Live, with asset tags that show how each market has moved since the alert on a 4 hour sparkline; the FO view on every calendar release, and on headline releases the move in the main currency and index since the release; and the full positioning check for every market, with net contracts, weekly changes, share of open interest, z-scores and the trader groups. Prices on the tags are live for the major currency pairs, gold, silver, oil, the US stock index futures, the main government bond yields and the dollar index; a few other markets are delayed by about 10 to 15 minutes and marked “(delayed)”. No card required.
The desk’s live feed at /live/: market alerts as the data lands, the pre-London and pre-New York briefings, and the FO view on what each move means. It updates through the trading day, with the day’s key releases in a strip along the top, actuals coloured against consensus. Anyone can filter the feed by type, asset, FO view, country and impact across everything published; free members also see asset tags that track each market for 4 hours after an alert.
One page built on the CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, at /positioning/. A colour-coded heatmap at the top shows where large speculators sit in each currency, rates, equity index and commodity futures market against 20 years of weekly reports, and how that changed on the week. Click or tap a market to open its full check: the trader groups in two sets, the main CFTC split (large speculators, commercials and small traders) and funds detail (leveraged funds and asset managers, from a separate CFTC report), with the 6 month to 5 year windows and the raw data. It updates after each Friday release. It describes positioning only and is not a recommendation.
Part of the calendar at /calendar/#central-banks, open to everyone: the next policy meeting, the current rate and the latest scheduled appearances for the nine central banks the calendar covers, with market-implied odds of a hold, hike or cut at each bank’s next meeting, taken from prediction market pricing and refreshed hourly. These are market prices, not an FO Research forecast. The PBoC has no such market, so it shows n/a.
A separate email list for surprise alerts: an email when a high impact release lands well outside forecasts, at most three a day. It is on by default for new members, and you can switch it off in your account without leaving the research emails.
A Premium page at /regime/, updated daily. It reads growth, inflation, policy and financial conditions into one headline regime call with its confidence and duration, then shows the drivers with live figures, a financial conditions gauge, how assets typically behaved in past episodes of the regime since 2007, what would flip it, what changed this week, a week-ahead risk map with central bank meeting odds, an economic surprise index for the G10 and the major regions, and CFTC positioning measured against the regime. The headline call and the four pillar readings are open to everyone. It describes conditions; it is not a forecast or a recommendation.
Yes, at /calendar/: the high impact events that move markets, across the US, euro area, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland and China, for this week and next, with optional filters to add medium and low impact releases and central bank speeches, and the central bank tracker on the same page. Every time is shown in your own time zone, and official actuals are published as they are released, green above consensus and red below. The schedule, with the previous, consensus and actual figures, is open to everyone. Free with your email, each release also carries the FO view on why it matters now, what an upside or downside surprise means for currencies, yields and stocks, and, once it is out, which way it surprised and by how much, with a link to the FO News Live read. On headline releases, tags show how the main currency and index moved in the hour or four hours after, with a "Usually up" or "Usually down" note where past releases give a clear guide.
Yes, and it is live and free. The FO Telegram channel carries every FO News Live alert and briefing as it breaks, straight to your phone. Join @FONewsLive.
FO News Live, the economic calendar and the central bank tracker show each time once, in your device’s own time zone by default, with a short label such as 17:30 Dubai or 09:30 New York. You can switch to Dubai, London, New York, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney, Frankfurt, GMT or any other time zone, or back to your local time; the choice carries across the pages, including the times inside alerts and briefings, and daylight saving is handled automatically.
Every FO Brief and Analysis Report opens on the site for everyone, with the setup, the dated hook and a full contents list of what the note carries. The remainder, with the scenario maps, the invalidation criteria, the tactical reads and the PDF, is for Premium. Free members also receive each note’s teaser by email as it ships.
By email the moment a report publishes, with the full archive accessible on the site. Premium receives every report in full, plus archive grade PDF downloads; free members receive each note’s teaser and contents. We don’t drip-feed; the report arrives when it ships.
Yes. Premium subscribers can reply directly to any FO Research email: replies route to the desk and are read. For research correspondence outside of an active subscription, email research@financialoracle.com. For investor relations with Financial Oracle SPC, partner@financialoracle.com.
Any time, from the member portal. No retention friction. Cancellations take effect at the end of the cycle, and you keep access until the end of the period you have paid for.
By application. Institutional is reserved for qualified subscribers: allocators, family offices and institutional desks. Apply at /apply/, or enquire at partner@financialoracle.com.
Allocators using a structured second opinion. Practitioners anchoring their macro framework. Institutional desks shortening the time between an event and a defensible internal narrative. Not designed for retail pattern-trading audiences.
Multiple publications a week, event-driven rather than calendar-bound. See the pricing page for the full comparison.
Premium receives every report in full and the daily Market Regime page, with the record scored in public at /calls. Two minutes to subscribe; cancel any time. Not ready? Get every note's teaser by email, free.
The Fund
Financial Oracle SPC is a Cayman Islands segregated portfolio company regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA). FO Research is the public research publication of Financial Oracle SPC.
Information for professional and eligible investors only. Not an offer.