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The peace dividend arrived and the long bond did not rally. A US-Iran ceasefire framework is circulating and Brent has eased into the mid-80s, yet the 30-year did not fall: it sits at 4.97%, a touch higher on the week. The same morning, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.00%, its hig…
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Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC on Wednesday, with inflation at its fastest since 2023 and a hot pipeline. The market asks what the new Chair will do. The box decides it, not the man: a Fed that cannot cut and will not hike at a debut. The long end is being moved from Geneva.
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May PPI ran hot beyond energy: the measure that strips food, energy and trade rose 0.8% against a 0.3% consensus. Hours later the ECB hiked for the first time since 2023, citing a broadening of price rises, and the euro was sold on the hike. The 30-year held its third test in a week.
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May CPI delivered the cleanest dovish surprise the data could give the front end: core came in soft at 0.2% on the month, below the 0.3% consensus. The curve ignored it. The 2-year barely moved (4.14%) and the 30-year held above 5.00% (5.01%), back through the floor it defended against Friday's…
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May CPI prints Wednesday, 08:30 ET. The monthly headline is set to cool to 0.3% from 0.6%, but the annual rate re-accelerates to 4.2% on base effects. The month cools, the year does not. Three paths into the print, and why the 30-year at 5.03% may hold the floor either way.
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Friday's S&P 500 ~$1.8 trillion market-cap wipeout, with the Nasdaq down 4.2% (record point drop) and the SOX off 8.8% on a hot payrolls print and Broadcom guidance pressure, exposed a market no longer willing to underwrite AI growth at any price. The same week, model routing entered the mainst…
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May NFP came in at 172,000 versus an 80,000 consensus. The 2-year repriced 21 basis points intraday. The 30-year pushed back above 5.00%. The constrained-Fed thesis just took the hottest tail the labor data could deliver and the floor held. This week's CPI is the next test.
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Six structural pillars have consolidated into a single regime through May. June opens with all six active and interacting: the inflation pipeline, the long-bond disconnect, the contracting mandate channel, the energy modifier, the constrained Fed, and the melt-up in risk assets sitting on a sti…
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On Sunday the desk wrote that the pivot is partial. Overnight on Tuesday, the US conducted self-defence strikes on Iran, Netanyahu announced intensified Hezbollah strikes, and Trump set the uranium deadline. The Brent to WTI spread is now the live measure of residual Hormuz risk.
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Trump posted Saturday that a US-Iran deal framework is being finalised. The war premium is unwinding. The unwind is partial. Three sticking points the deal still has to clear, and three caveats on the unwind itself.
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The FOMC majority almost removed the easing bias. The market is still pricing the cuts they would not have delivered. The April record is the institutional ratification of the call set.
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On 16 May the United States lost its last top-tier sovereign credit rating. It is the first time all three major agencies have held it below the top notch simultaneously. The bond market did not wait for the announcement. The 30-year closed the prior session at 5.12% and the 10-year at 4.59%; t…
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