Research
The Floor Meets the Print
May CPI prints tomorrow, Wednesday 10 June, at 08:30 ET. It is the second test of the rate floor in a single week. Friday’s jobs print was the first: 172,000 against an 80,000 consensus, and the 30-year answered by holding above 5.00%. Tomorrow the inflation side of the same reaction function gets its turn.
The consensus looks, at first glance, like relief. Headline CPI is seen rising 0.5% on the month, a shade below 0.6% in April, with core seen cooling. The screens will hunt for a disinflation angle within seconds of the release.
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