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Kevin Warsh was confirmed Federal Reserve Chair on 13 May 2026 by a 54–45 Senate vote — the narrowest Fed-chair confirmation on record. He takes office today with a 6.0% producer-price reading on his desk, the 30-year yield at 5%, and an OIS curve still pricing rate cuts his confirmation-…
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April US Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.4% month-on-month — the largest monthly advance since March 2022 and roughly three times the consensus +0.5%. The headline is being attributed to gasoline. Strip energy, food and trade margins out, and the core producer-price gauge still ran…
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March US retail sales rose 1.7%, beating consensus. Strip out the gas-station receipts driving the headline and real personal consumption rose 0.2%. The aggregate masks a bifurcated consumer — upper-income spending freely, lower-income at the financial margin — with a Q3 federal student-loan co…
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The Fed has cut 175 basis points across six meetings. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5% this week. Over the entire easing cycle, the 10-year fell just 35 bps. The disconnect between Fed policy and the long end of the curve is described as unprecedented since 1990 — and it is being d…
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Project Freedom is the headline. The unwritten story: on 25 April, Pakistan formally designated Gwadar — China's $62bn flagship port, 89 km from the Iranian border — as a commercial transit hub for Iran-bound third-country cargo. The Strait of Hormuz blockade is now optional. The implication fo…
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Markets continue to price a softer Federal Reserve path than current macro conditions justify. When sentiment is stripped away and the underlying structure assessed, the case for continued dollar resilience remains materially stronger than consensus appreciates. Yield differentials, relative U.…
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The market remains caught between two competing forces: strong earnings momentum on one side, and a renewed inflation impulse from oil, geopolitics, and sticky rates on the other. This week's breakdown leans toward a constructive USD bias against currencies more exposed to weaker growth, energy…
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The UAE has confirmed its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective 1 May 2026, ending nearly six decades of participation. The headline read is a weaker producer cartel; the deeper macro read is persistent oil-market volatility, reinforced inflation uncertainty, a more cautious Federal Reserve,…
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