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The Floor Held
May nonfarm payrolls printed 172,000 on Friday against an 80,000 consensus, a 92,000 beat and more than double the expected pace. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Earlier in the week, ADP had already come in hot at +122,000 and JOLTS openings had surged to 7.6 million, the highest reading since mid-2024. Three labor data points in a single week. One direction.
The 2-year yield spiked 21 basis points intraday on the headline before settling back to 4.19% by close. The 30-year held its ground and is trading at 5.03% this morning, back above the psychological 5.00% line. The curve flattened on bear terms: the 2s30s spread compressed as the front end paid up for the cut risk it had been pricing all week, while the long end refused to give back any of its term premium.
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Sources. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, May 2026 (nonfarm payrolls 172k headline, unemployment rate 4.3%, long-term unemployment 27-weeks-plus series). US BLS, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, April 2026 (openings 7.6M). ADP Research Institute, National Employment Report, May 2026 (private payrolls +122k). CNBC, “U.S. payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, much more than expected; unemployment at 4.3%”, 6 June 2026; “Why More Americans Are Unemployed For Longer”, 6 June 2026. FT, “US economy blew past expectations to add 172,000 jobs in May”, 6 June 2026. Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac and European Opening News, 7 to 8 June 2026 (Iran-Israel strike coverage; Houthi maritime ban). US Treasury yields and Brent: TradingView intraday, 5 to 8 June 2026 close levels and Monday open. Federal Reserve, Minutes of the FOMC April 28-29, 2026, released 20 May. Financial Oracle SPC: The Long Bond Disconnect (8 May), The Pivot, Partial (24 May), Six Pillars. One Regime. (1 Jun).
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