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FO Analysis: The Price of Duration.
Weak data bought duration nothing: a payroll print of 29,000, a soft inflation gauge, and the thirty-year closed Monday at 5.66, a new high, with breakevens flat; the Treasury was offered forty-six billion dollars of long bonds against a six billion door; and high-yield spreads closed through the one level the desk published in August as its growth tell.
The Door Was Rushed. The Tell Fired.
The desk published its levels before the data, and last week the data answered three of them. Payrolls printed 29,000 and the two-year held the 4.80 line the desk had set as the test of a second rise. The Treasury's buyback door was offered forty-six billion dollars against a six billion limit, the queue the desk measured in August back at twice its size. And high-yield spreads closed through the 3.10 signal the desk published in August as the one number that changes its map. Every call is scored below, including the one the desk got wrong: retiring the queue claim two sessions before the queue returned.
What Is a Credit Spread? HY OAS Explained