News
Pre-New York: hot import prices, dollar still soft into the open
Pre-New York: hot import prices, dollar still soft into the open
FO News: Pre-New York
Fri 16 Oct · / 12:58 GMT
Since London
* price up · price down*
Rates
- 5.12% US 10y yield up 3bp into open
- 4.77% US 2y yield up on hot import prices
FX
- 101.77 DXY, off 0.3% despite hot prices
- 1.3332 GBP/USD leads, AUD/USD +0.5%
Commodities
- $4,197 gold +0.7% as dollar softens
- $106.0 Brent little changed, +0.1%
Gulf
- Yanbu alert then all-clear, no damage confirmed
- Iran state media tanker fire claim, unconfirmed
Data since London ( / 09:00 GMT)
| Release | Actual | Fcst | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EZ HICP | 3.8% | 3.8% | - | |
| EZ core | 2.5% | 2.5% | - |
* above fcst · below · in line*
US data ( / 12:30 GMT)
| Release | Actual | Fcst | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ImpP m/m | +1.1% | +1.0% | +0.7% | |
| ImpP y/y | 8.1% | 8.2% | - | |
| ExpP m/m | +2.2% | +0.9% | +0.6% | |
| NY svcs | -20.7 | -4.1 | -8.7 |
* above fcst · below · in line*
Still ahead ( / 13:15 GMT)
| Release | Actual | Fcst | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▫️ | IP m/m | due | +0.4% | 0.0% |
- US cash open / 13:30 GMT
- No Fed speakers on today's calendar
Tape
| Asset | Level | Chg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 101.77 | -0.3% | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1246 | +0.2% | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3332 | +0.4% | |
| AUD/USD | 0.6957 | +0.5% | |
| US 2y | 4.77% | +1.5bp | |
| US 10y | 5.12% | +2.8bp | |
| Brent | 106.0 | +0.1% | |
| Gold | 4197 | +0.7% |
* price up · price down · flat/unverified*
Positioning check
*(COT as of Tue 6 Oct)*
Hot import prices support the dollar; DX net long, mid-range (63rd pct). AUD net long near 3y high (92nd), US 2y net short among smallest in 3y (98th); moves may be stretched.
| Market | Net | 3y pct | Position vs 3y range |
|---|---|---|---|
| DX | +864 | 63rd | Net long, mid-range |
| AUD | +54,133 | 92nd | Net long, near 3y high |
| US 2y | -1,257,484 | 98th | Net short, among smallest in 3y |
What it means
Hot import and export prices extend the week's inflation run, yet the dollar is softer into the open and yields are only modestly higher.
FO ties
Assets: DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, US 2Y, US 10Y, Brent, Gold
FO view: Hot import and export prices extend the week's inflation run, yet the dollar is softer into the open and yields are only modestly higher.
Not investment advice.
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