News
Pre-London: Warsh quiet, dollar soft, EZ HICP final due
Pre-London: Warsh quiet, dollar soft, EZ HICP final due
FO News: Pre-London
Fri 16 Oct · 10:30 Dubai / 06:30 GMT
Overnight
* price up · price down*
Rates
- US 10y yield down to 5.09 after hot PPI fade
- Warsh: no Oct/Dec signal, will not prejudge
FX
- DXY ~101.9, soft vs ~102 NY close
- EUR/USD 1.124 · GBP/USD 1.331 bid
Commodities
- Brent Asia 105.4 (-0.5% vs 105.92 settle)
- Gold ~4,194, bid as dollar softens
Gulf
- UAE MoD intercepted Iranian drone, no damage
- Saudi-led coalition drone intercept, Eastern Province
Data overnight
| Release | Actual | Fcst | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SE U-rate | 8.6% | 8.6% | - |
* above fcst · below · in line*
Today (13:00 Dubai / 09:00 GMT)
| Release | Actual | Fcst | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▫️ | EZ HICP y/y | due | 3.8% | 3.2% |
| ▫️ | EZ core y/y | due | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| ▫️ | US ImpP m/m | due | +0.8% | +0.7% |
| ▫️ | US IP m/m | due | +0.4% | 0.0% |
- No Fed/ECB/BoE speakers on today's calendar (Warsh already overnight)
Tape
| Asset | Level | Chg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 101.9 | -0.1% | |
| EUR/USD | 1.124 | +0.4% | |
| GBP/USD | 1.331 | +0.6% | |
| AUD/USD | 0.695 | -0.5% | |
| US 2y | 4.75 | - | |
| US 10y | 5.09 | -10bp | |
| Brent | 105.4 | -0.5% | |
| Gold | 4194 | +0.6% |
* price up · price down · flat/unverified*
Positioning check
*(COT as of Tue 6 Oct)*
Hot data supports the dollar; DX net long, mid-range (63rd pct). EUR net short near 3y extreme (6th); move may stall.
| Market | Net | 3y pct | Position vs 3y range |
|---|---|---|---|
| DX | +864 | 63rd | Net long, mid-range |
| EUR | -44,261 | 6th | Net short, among largest in 3y |
What it means
After two hot US inflation prints the dollar stays soft into London, with Euro area HICP final due to confirm the energy-led flash.
FO ties
Assets: DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, US 2Y, US 10Y, Brent, Gold
FO view: After two hot US inflation prints the dollar stays soft into London, with Euro area HICP final due to confirm the energy-led flash.
Not investment advice.
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