News

Pre-New York: hot PPI on the board, dollar still soft into the cash open

October 15, 2026 · 1 min read · Pardip Bansal

Hot PPI on the board: +1.3% m/m, dollar still soft into the open

Since London price up price down

Rates
  • 3.37% Bund 10y, yield down, lowest since early Sep
  • 5.07% US 10y, yield down into the data
FX
  • 102.0 DXY, off 18-month high
Commodities
  • $4,172 gold, post-CPI rebound
  • $104.4 Brent, no Gulf supply hit
Gulf
  • Hormuz tanker fire claim, unconfirmed

US data

ReleaseActualFcstPrior
PPI m/m+1.3%+0.6%+0.4%
PPI y/y6.3%5.4%-
Core m/m+0.7%+0.3%-
Core y/y5.0%4.4%-
Retail m/m+0.8%+0.3%-
Ret exauto+0.9%+0.5%-
Claims199k200k-
Philly Fed20.928.0-
Empire25.512.0-

above fcst below in line

Still ahead

  • Cash open:
  • Warsh, IMF Bangkok:

Tape

DXY 102.0 -0.6EUR/USD 1.121 -GBP/USD 1.325 -AUD/USD 0.698 -US 2y 4.75 -US 10y 5.07 -Brent 104.4 -Gold 4,172 -

price up price down flat/unverified

⚠️ Positioning check Hot data supports the dollar, but positioning is mid-range, so the move is not crowded (DX net long, 63rd percentile). EUR net short near a 3y extreme (6th), GBP net long near a 3y low (10th) and AUD net long near a 3y high (92nd) are where a hawkish move could stall or snap back. Gold: net long, mid-range (33rd).

Assets: DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, US 2Y, US 10Y, Brent, Gold

What it means Two hot inflation prints, yet the dollar and long end still have not repriced hawkish.

FO view: A second hot inflation print in two sessions sits beside a tape that has still not bought the dollar or sold duration hard, the same settle pattern the desk scored on yesterday's CPI.

FO ties

Not investment advice.

FO Research is publishing commentary. It is separate from Financial Oracle SPC and does not offer, promote or report on any fund, account or investment product.

FO Telegram channel coming soon. Sign up free by email for research notes.

FILED UNDER News Dollar Australia Oil Gold
Previous US September PPI runs red hot at 1.3% m/m vs 0.6% expected Next US crude inventories draw 8.6M barrels vs flat consensus

The research is Premium. The record is public.

Every Brief and Analysis in full: the scenario maps with explicit invalidation, the cross-asset tactical reads, the desk-formatted PDFs and the daily Market Regime page, and a scorecard where every call is dated before the print and scored after it, misses included. Inspect the record before you pay for it.

Subscribe to Premium

Not ready? Get the teasers by email, free · New to the mechanics? Learn is open to everyone.