News
Pre-London: China beats, Brent eases, Canada CPI due
Pre-London: China beats, Brent eases, Canada CPI due
FO News: Pre-London
Mon 19 Oct · / 06:19 GMT
Overnight
* price up · price down*
Rates
- 4.73% US 2y yield up 1bp, hike talk lingers
- 5.07% US 10y yield down 1bp
FX
- 0.6972 AUD/USD +0.4% on China GDP beat
- 1.1221 EUR/USD, below 1.1250
Commodities
- $107.5 Brent -2.2% vs $109.86 Fri settle
- $4,177 gold +0.3%, firmer in Asia
Equities
- S&P futures +0.8% after chip slide
- Asia mixed: Nikkei -0.6%, KOSPI +1.4%
Gulf
- IRGC: tanker hit mine in Hormuz (state media)
- Iran FM still studying US reply on Hormuz plan
Data overnight
| Release | Actual | Fcst | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN GDP y/y | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | |
| CN GDP q/q | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | |
| CN retail | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | |
| CN IP y/y | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | |
| JP 3ry m/m | -0.1% | -0.4% | 0.2% |
* above fcst · below · in line*
Today ( / 12:30 GMT)
| Release | Actual | Fcst | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▫️ | CA CPI y/y | due | 3.2% | 3.0% |
- Lavrov visits Tehran; Egypt parliament on Saudi support
- Tue: UK labour data / 06:00 GMT
Tape
| Asset | Level | Chg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 101.87 | +0.1% | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1221 | -0.2% | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3326 | 0.0% | |
| AUD/USD | 0.6972 | +0.4% | |
| US 2y | 4.73 | +1bp | |
| US 10y | 5.07 | -1bp | |
| Brent | 107.5 | -2.2% | |
| Gold | 4177 | +0.3% |
* price up · price down · flat/unverified*
Positioning check
*(COT as of Tue 13 Oct)*
China beat favours the Aussie, but leveraged funds are net long near 3y high (89th); move may stall. CAD net short, among largest in 3y (10th), into CPI.
| Market | Net | Wk chg | 3y pct | Position vs 3y range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD | +50,591 | -3,542 | 89th | Net long, near 3y high |
| CAD | -88,112 | -8,487 | 10th | Net short, among largest in 3y |
What it means
A firm China print and softer Brent cool the inflation pulse into London, with Canada CPI the main test and Gulf shipping risk still live.
FO ties
Assets: DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, US 2Y, US 10Y, Brent, Gold
FO view: A firm China print and softer Brent cool the inflation pulse into London, with Canada CPI the main test and Gulf shipping risk still live.
Not investment advice.
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