banks
research.

The shorthand: the Fed is running the brake and the accelerator at once. The brake is the rate hand, hawkish dots and a guidance withdrawal that lifts term premium. The accelerator is the capital hand, a leverage relief already in force and a Basel re-proposal that cuts rather than raises capital, freeing a domestic bank bid and a wave of balance-sheet capacity. Banks are rising into higher rates because equity already prices it. The honest limit: the returning bid skews short, so it eases the front end, the plumbing and credit more than the 30-year. The floor still needs term premium to turn. Same floor, new cross-current.