Capex
research.

The shorthand: Nasdaq -4.2% Friday with a record point drop, S&P 500 -2.65% for a ~$1.8T market-cap wipeout, SOX -8.8%, VIX +39%, HY OAS 2.76 close (from 2.74 prior; credit refused to widen), Alphabet announcing a ~$80bn equity raise to help fund $180-190bn of 2026 capex, Anthropic confidentially filing for IPO at a ~$965bn last private mark, and the mainstream reporting cycle picking up the mechanism: model routing. The era of one model at premium price is being tested. The IPO valuations resting on that era are the cleanest tell on which way it breaks.